Here we are....

So one of the last charts I posted was this one right here...going all the way back to January 26th.

Since then, it's been mostly sunshine and rainbows.  Except that all of the things discussed back in November through January still held true.  The only thing that really changed was the news out there.  Instead of being doom and gloom, the news really was sunshine and rainbows.  Why?  The gov'ts were able to do a kick save, then just put out all great information like decreasing unemployment, as the markets went up and up and up.  The news was mixed out of Europe.  There was a little issues with Greece possibly not making a payment on their new debt and defaulting, which technically they did and triggered a bunch of credit default swaps, but it was once thought the triggering of CDS' would cascade into a full collapse of all the banks in Europe and start a brand new 2008 style crisis all over again.  It didn't happen.  Probably because of the kick save and the liquidity swap rate being reduced, among other help along the way that isn't really important to discuss.  But, here we are.

You really can't write a better script than this.  America going into the abyss (in Nov).  The gov't comes in saves Europe and the US with a magic reduction in liquidity swap rates.  That goes to the peak and things breakdown.  Then they magically print (or trade) money out of thin air to "boost" the economy past the peak.  It last all of 5 months and we're heading back down.  What will our super hero do now that their save is in danger again?  It looks like we will find out. 

The blogosphere/banks/whoever have all been projecting QE3 (Quantitative Easing) to happen in June/July.  Partly because of the elections coming up, partly because the banks thought they would need the money again by June and mostly because that's when their next meetings are.  But before any QE saves can come through, the FED would need a reason to do more QE, so they (the banks) need another crisis situation.  It's happening.  Anybody see this one?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/jpmorgan-ceo-dimon-acknowledges-800-million-in-recent-losses-on-investments/2012/05/10/gIQAhyaPGU_story.html 

So like my title says again, Here we are.  Are we going to be going into "crisis" mode again because it's convenient and the banks now need more money?  It sure looks like it from the charts, and the news coming out lately.  I may go into the JP Morgan trading loss in another post as well as other things, but for now...

The stage is set!  The actors are ready play their parts! And around the corner is the greatest of shows... The Election!

Right now, at critical support.

 As you can see above, the "boost" didn't get us through any of the 2008 highs.  I didn't expect it to.  That tells me there really is no real recovery.  I've been saying that for a long time though.  What's interesting right now is that we sit on that critical support (former resistance) at the 12,300 level in the Dow Futures.  That is right where the "boost" pushed us through to give everybody the 20% gains for the 1st quarter of 2012 which have all been erased now in a matter of weeks.  (This is a fun ride huh?)

So a break down through this support level would signal to me a continuation of the previous trend (which is down).  That should last until all of the gains from the first "boost" back in November have been erased and we sit somewhere around 11,000 on the Dow Futures.  That's just a guess, but who am I, just a nobody with a faint idea of what I'm doing here.

One thing is for certain though...be prepared for anything.  The reason everybody hangs on Ben Bernanke's every word is because his word is the only real game in town any more.  (Next meeting June 19-20)  Whether the FED prints money or doesn't print money.  THIS IS THE NEW WORLD WE LIVE IN.  A world controlled exclusively not by free markets or entrepreneurial spirit, but by manipulated data, manipulated perceptions and manipulated markets.  You better get used to that starting right here, and right now.